By Gary M. Kaye,
Chief Content Officer Tech50+ (www.tech50plus.com)
Most of the technological elements for the self-driving car, or autonomous vehicle, are already here. Google, Audi, and Toyota have all demonstrated working models. Manufacturers like Volvo and Mercedes are already marketing cars with many of the assistive driving features we will come to expect as routine, including what I think of as “automated tailgating”.
Social acceptance
The technology is only one part of the equation. I love to drive. Getting behind the wheel on a twisting rural highway during foliage season is pure joy. I hate to drive. Getting stuck in New York or Los Angeles traffic or anywhere in between is pure frustration. There are some studies that predict that younger drivers will more readily adapt to self-driving cars than will their elders, largely because they already embrace technology. Many older drivers are skeptical of technology, and would rather struggle with diminishing eyesight and reflexes rather than yield to the machine.
Vehicle to-vehicle communications
By many estimates, we’ll have fully functioning autonomous vehicles on the road within five years. But now that we’re keeping our cars longer, it could take an entire generation before self-driving cars are ubiquitous. The federal government has embraced the notion of self-driving cars, seeing them as a way of dramatically improving highway safety, and at the same time being able to pack more cars in the same space, reducing pressure to build new roads.
States’ rights
Because driving is regulated by the states, they will also play a major role in the approval and regulation of self-driving cars. So far only six states have enacted autonomous vehicle legislation. Nevada was first to actually authorize self-driving cars in 2011. Other states that have passed legislation, though not necessarily approved the vehicles are: California, Michigan, North Dakota, Tennessee, Florida, and the District of Columbia.
The insurance quandary
But bubbling under the surface of all this is the question of how the insurance companies are going to deal with self-driving vehicles. So far the indications are not promising. While the insurance companies offer multi-car policies, good driving records, and driver’s education courses, so far none offers a discount for assistive driving devices such as forward collision avoidance and lane departure warnings. Yet, an estimated 90% of all accidents are caused by driver error, a number that one report predicts could drop by 80% with self-driving cars. When the insurance companies finally do wake up could they one day say, “hey, if you’re over age 75, either get a self driving vehicle, or we won’t insure you?”
I, for one look at my own declining eyesight and slowing reflexes and hope the autonomous vehicle comes sooner rather than later. But as the famous movie misquote says, “fasten your seatbelts, we’re in for a bumpy ride.”
Gary Kaye is the creator of Tech50+ (www.tech50plus.com), the leading website covering technology from the Baby Boomer perspective. Kaye has been covering high tech for more than 30 years with outlets including NBC, ABC, CNN and Fox Business. He is a regular contributor to AARP and other websites on issues regarding the nexus of technology, seniors and baby boomers.
